Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

218.35 – 82.45

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 67.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.5 ±10.4

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 5.68Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 105.93Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 106.74Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.4 ±15.3

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 49.86Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 14.65Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 17.94Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2169, 5913, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 5913, 2491

Auto

52.9 25%

Teleop

128.6 60%

Endgame

34.2 16%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3102, 4623, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3102, 4623, 3008

Auto

21.0 26%

Teleop

41.5 51%

Endgame

19.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score218.4pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.9
Score range: 64–236
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.5Season APEX256.4

52.9Auto21

128.6Teleop41.5

34.2Endgame19

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	24
teleop	181	37
endgame	70	40
foul	15	5
total	330	106

Result

Final score

330 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 67.6 pts

Match videos

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