Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.75 – 84.85

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.6 ±13.1

6047Proctor Frostbyte

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 17.03Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 127.86Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 150.86Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±16.2

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 23.34Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 41.92Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 19.59Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6047, 2052, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6047, 2052, 6907

Auto

75.5 27%

Teleop

159.5 56%

Endgame

49.2 17%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10711, 6758, 3212

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 6758, 3212

Auto

19.3 24%

Teleop

41.6 51%

Endgame

20.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score295.8pts

Blue projected score84.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210.9
Score range: 67–314
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 97.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.6Season APEX220.7

75.5Auto19.3

159.5Teleop41.6

49.2Endgame20.2

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	31
teleop	245	39
endgame	68	28
foul	0	0
total	417	98

Result

Final score

417 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 pts

Match videos

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