Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.71 – 121.33

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.5 ±10.4

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 16.33Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 115.62Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 116.76Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313 ±11.6

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 55.98Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 49.94Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 15.41Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2169, 5913, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 5913, 2491

Auto

47.0 19%

Teleop

139.8 58%

Endgame

55.4 23%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2472, 8122, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 8122, 2239

Auto

23.9 21%

Teleop

58.4 50%

Endgame

33.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score248.7pts

Blue projected score121.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.4
Score range: 102–268
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 104.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.5Season APEX313

47Auto23.9

139.8Teleop58.4

55.4Endgame33.4

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	18
teleop	69	21
endgame	42	43
foul	20	5
total	164	87

Result

Final score

164 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 pts

Match videos

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