Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.12 – 117.79

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±16.2

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 42.43Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 24.41Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 20.28Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313 ±11.6

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 54.78Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 48.67Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 14.34Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6758, 10711, 3212

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6758, 10711, 3212

Auto

21.4 25%

Teleop

40.8 48%

Endgame

22.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2472, 8122, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 8122, 2239

Auto

24.3 22%

Teleop

56.4 51%

Endgame

30.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.1pts

Blue projected score117.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.7
Score range: 68–137
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 104.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.7Season APEX313

21.4Auto24.3

40.8Teleop56.4

22.1Endgame30.5

13Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	21	70
endgame	20	52
foul	5	0
total	65	143

Result

Final score

65 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Match videos

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