Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

311.53 – 245.41

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.6 ±13.1

6047Proctor Frostbyte

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 23.67Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 132.02Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 155.84Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.5 ±10.4

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 15.33Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 114.65Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 115.43Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6047, 2052, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6047, 2052, 6907

Auto

80.7 27%

Teleop

170.2 56%

Endgame

50.7 17%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2169, 5913, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 5913, 2491

Auto

49.8 21%

Teleop

144.3 60%

Endgame

46.3 19%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score311.5pts

Blue projected score245.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.1
Score range: 227–330
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.6Season APEX615.5

80.7Auto49.8

170.2Teleop144.3

50.7Endgame46.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	31
teleop	118	112
endgame	64	111
foul	15	15
total	291	269

Result

Final score

291 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Match videos

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