Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.73 – 88.65

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.2 ±12.8

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 22.42Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 102.46Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 35.85Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±16.2

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 42.2Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 25.08Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 21.37Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5232, 6045, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 6045, 2855

Auto

19.8 13%

Teleop

88.8 57%

Endgame

47.2 30%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6758, 10711, 3212

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6758, 10711, 3212

Auto

21.4 25%

Teleop

42.5 49%

Endgame

22.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.7pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.1
Score range: 70–180
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 102.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.2Season APEX220.7

19.8Auto21.4

88.8Teleop42.5

47.2Endgame22.3

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	18	30
endgame	10	22
foul	10	5
total	62	79

Result

Final score

62 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 54.2 pts

Match videos

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