Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.32 – 110.51

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.6 ±16.2

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 4.02Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 55.73Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3054IceStorm

Provisional

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 10.57Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.8 ±14.6

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 13.43Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 23.65Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 73.43Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 2512, 3054

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 2512, 3054

Auto

33.5 47%

Teleop

16.0 22%

Endgame

21.9 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4181, 8122, 9532

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4181, 8122, 9532

Auto

20.6 19%

Teleop

59.1 53%

Endgame

30.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.3pts

Blue projected score110.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.2
Score range: 54–127
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 88.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.6Season APEX215.8

33.5Auto20.6

16Teleop59.1

21.9Endgame30.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	23
teleop	25	49
endgame	31	27
foul	0	0
total	67	99

Result

Final score

67 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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