Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.81 – 47.13

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.6 ±16.2

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 17.75Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5720Jagobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX -0.64Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 6.7Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.8 ±15.8

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 7.36Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 25.19Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 14.58Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1622, 5720, 5275

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1622, 5720, 5275

Auto

21.8 100%

Teleop

-3.5 0%

Endgame

0.5 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2500, 5232, 4623

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 5232, 4623

Auto

14.3 30%

Teleop

18.6 39%

Endgame

15.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.8pts

Blue projected score47.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 6–65
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 97.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.6Season APEX140.8

21.8Auto14.3

-3.5Teleop18.6

0.5Endgame15.2

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	41	26
endgame	12	19
foul	0	0
total	71	57

Result

Final score

71 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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