Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.39 – 84.77

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.8 ±13.5

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 153.74Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -2.43Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 9.08Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.8 ±14.6

6047Proctor Frostbyte

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 20.68Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 21.07Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 43.02Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6907, 4230, 2129

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6907, 4230, 2129

Auto

48.9 33%

Teleop

74.9 50%

Endgame

26.5 18%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6047, 4226, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6047, 4226, 2855

Auto

15.7 19%

Teleop

40.6 49%

Endgame

27.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.4pts

Blue projected score84.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.6
Score range: 67–178
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 97.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.8Season APEX241.8

48.9Auto15.7

74.9Teleop40.6

26.5Endgame27.1

26Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	18
teleop	67	10
endgame	6	23
foul	15	0
total	138	51

Result

Final score

138 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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