Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.28 – 186.07

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.7 ±15.2

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 41.22Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 13.95Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX -9.89Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.9 ±14.1

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 103.88Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 37.6Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 44.59Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8122, 3212, 5278

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8122, 3212, 5278

Auto

8.1 18%

Teleop

22.4 51%

Endgame

13.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2491, 4687, 9532

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2491, 4687, 9532

Auto

27.4 15%

Teleop

104.9 58%

Endgame

47.7 27%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.3pts

Blue projected score186.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.8
Score range: 28–203
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 96.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.7Season APEX427.9

8.1Auto27.4

22.4Teleop104.9

13.3Endgame47.7

59Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	34
teleop	66	139
endgame	28	58
foul	0	0
total	118	231

Result

Final score

118 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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