Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.13 – 66.06

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±12.2

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 119.51Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 8.83Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX -24.21Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.4 ±19.7

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX 6.37Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 34.18Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 25.51Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2052, 3008, 2227

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2052, 3008, 2227

Auto

27.1 26%

Teleop

54.3 51%

Endgame

24.1 23%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10474, 11292, 7041

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10474, 11292, 7041

Auto

19.9 30%

Teleop

32.4 49%

Endgame

13.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.1pts

Blue projected score66.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.1
Score range: 49–121
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 96.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.2Season APEX113.4

27.1Auto19.9

54.3Teleop32.4

24.1Endgame13.4

105Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	24
teleop	105	17
endgame	55	15
foul	5	15
total	211	71

Result

Final score

211 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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