Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.58 – 135.39

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.8 ±14.1

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 47.11Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 15.3Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 35.17Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346 ±12.2

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 16.54Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 12.75Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 106.1Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 10711, 6758

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 10711, 6758

Auto

27.1 29%

Teleop

42.4 45%

Endgame

24.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2574, 2239, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2574, 2239, 5913

Auto

39.7 29%

Teleop

81.1 59%

Endgame

16.4 12%

Strengths

· 5913 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.6pts

Blue projected score135.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.8
Score range: 81–152
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 95.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.8Season APEX346

27.1Auto39.7

42.4Teleop81.1

24.8Endgame16.4

2Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	86	111
endgame	50	16
foul	15	5
total	190	153

Result

Final score

190 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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