Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.03 – 56.04

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

57 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.9 ±16.2

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 6.23Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 43.85Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX -9.05Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±12.2

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 12.36Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 24.99Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 18.69Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5275, 9532, 5278

/ 100 compat

Projected

41 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5275, 9532, 5278

Auto

16.1 52%

Teleop

3.4 11%

Endgame

11.7 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2129, 4226, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2129, 4226, 1622

Auto

18.0 35%

Teleop

21.4 42%

Endgame

11.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41pts

Blue projected score56pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15
Score range: 24–73
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 95.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.9Season APEX242.7

16.1Auto18

3.4Teleop21.4

11.7Endgame11.5

58Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	5
teleop	33	20
endgame	9	17
foul	0	0
total	57	42

Result

Final score

57 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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