Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.41 – 194.88

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 84.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.9 ±12.2

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 18.8Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 112Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 35.61Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398 ±12.8

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 163.56Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 47.28Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX -15.96Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5232, 2052, 8122

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 2052, 8122

Auto

35.9 22%

Teleop

88.5 55%

Endgame

35.5 22%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6907, 4687, 2227

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6907, 4687, 2227

Auto

54.3 28%

Teleop

101.9 53%

Endgame

34.9 18%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.4pts

Blue projected score194.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 149–212
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 94.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.9Season APEX398

35.9Auto54.3

88.5Teleop101.9

35.5Endgame34.9

0Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	16
teleop	150	51
endgame	75	47
foul	0	0
total	254	114

Result

Final score

254 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 84.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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