Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.48 – 16.26

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379 ±15.6

3054IceStorm

Provisional

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 11.58Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 103.63Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 23.27Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.8 ±16.6

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 10Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 1Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX 5.26Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3054, 2491, 4181

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3054, 2491, 4181

Auto

34.3 25%

Teleop

77.4 57%

Endgame

24.3 18%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3008, 2512, 10474

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3008, 2512, 10474

Auto

9.5 48%

Teleop

1.0 5%

Endgame

9.1 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.5pts

Blue projected score16.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.2
Score range: -1–155
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 94.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379Season APEX196.8

34.3Auto9.5

77.4Teleop1

24.3Endgame9.1

41Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	4
teleop	94	11
endgame	23	10
foul	15	0
total	160	25

Result

Final score

160 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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