Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.48 – 62.3

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

36 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.2 ±15.6

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 0.67Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 6.5Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 9.31Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±15.8

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 19.51Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 22.71Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 20.08Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2169, 2500, 5253

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 2500, 5253

Auto

9.3 76%

Teleop

5.7 47%

Endgame

-2.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10711, 2574, 4623

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 2574, 4623

Auto

12.7 20%

Teleop

36.3 58%

Endgame

13.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score16.5pts

Blue projected score62.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.8
Score range: -1–79
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 55 vs event baseline 95.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.2Season APEX249.8

9.3Auto12.7

5.7Teleop36.3

-2.8Endgame13.7

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	19
teleop	12	0
endgame	10	0
foul	0	0
total	36	19

Result

Final score

36 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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