Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.26 – 127.04

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 105.8 ±18.5

6132Iron Rangers

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 4.2Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 26.15Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

6047Proctor Frostbyte

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 15.91Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.3 ±12.8

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 27.32Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 50.52Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 49.2Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6132, 6758, 6047

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6132, 6758, 6047

Auto

17.1 35%

Teleop

20.8 43%

Endgame

10.8 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3610, 2472, 2855

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3610, 2472, 2855

Auto

26.9 21%

Teleop

65.5 51%

Endgame

35.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.3pts

Blue projected score127pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.8
Score range: 29–144
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 95.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

105.8Season APEX364.3

17.1Auto26.9

20.8Teleop65.5

10.8Endgame35.2

110Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	14
teleop	51	27
endgame	16	39
foul	25	0
total	126	80

Result

Final score

126 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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