Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.91 – 43.28

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±15.6

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 55.31Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5720Jagobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 3.45Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 110.15Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.1 ±16.6

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 14.1Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 31.54Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -2.36Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3102, 5720, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3102, 5720, 5913

Auto

48.3 29%

Teleop

97.3 58%

Endgame

22.8 14%

Strengths

· 5913 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2239, 11292, 4230

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2239, 11292, 4230

Auto

17.6 44%

Teleop

20.3 51%

Endgame

1.7 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score168.9pts

Blue projected score43.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.6
Score range: 26–186
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 95.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360Season APEX174.1

48.3Auto17.6

97.3Teleop20.3

22.8Endgame1.7

4Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	17
teleop	69	17
endgame	25	20
foul	0	0
total	131	54

Result

Final score

131 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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