Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.16 – 309.42

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.1 ±14.7

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 3.82Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 111.35Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 47.99Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580.7 ±12.4

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 20.83Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 173.18Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 115.41Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2512, 2052, 9532

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2512, 2052, 9532

Auto

34.8 22%

Teleop

80.3 51%

Endgame

41.0 26%

Strengths

· 2052 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5275, 6907, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5275, 6907, 2491

Auto

73.6 24%

Teleop

166.9 55%

Endgame

60.7 20%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.2pts

Blue projected score309.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.3
Score range: 146–326
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 93.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.1Season APEX580.7

34.8Auto73.6

80.3Teleop166.9

41Endgame60.7

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	79
teleop	72	72
endgame	34	7
foul	0	40
total	142	198

Result

Final score

142 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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