Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.53 – 41.33

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.7 ±16.5

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 7.97Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 3.47Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 16.09Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±12.2

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 15.29Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 7.97Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 18.07Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2129, 5253, 10711

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2129, 5253, 10711

Auto

8.4 27%

Teleop

19.4 63%

Endgame

3.2 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1622, 3008, 4181

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1622, 3008, 4181

Auto

22.9 51%

Teleop

12.7 28%

Endgame

9.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27.5pts

Blue projected score41.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.8
Score range: 11–58
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 93.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.7Season APEX258.4

8.4Auto22.9

19.4Teleop12.7

3.2Endgame9.5

11Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	18
teleop	7	42
endgame	11	8
foul	35	0
total	60	68

Result

Final score

60 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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