Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.92 – 52.95

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.9 ±12.8

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 20.88Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 17.83Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 112.21Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.8 ±14.5

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 16Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -1.88Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 38.83Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10711, 3298, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 3298, 2491

Auto

28.7 20%

Teleop

74.6 53%

Endgame

37.4 27%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5232, 4230, 2177

/ 100 compat

Projected

53 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 4230, 2177

Auto

17.4 32%

Teleop

20.5 38%

Endgame

15.9 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150.9pts

Blue projected score53pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98
Score range: 34–170
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.9Season APEX185.8

28.7Auto17.4

74.6Teleop20.5

37.4Endgame15.9

15Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	90	7
endgame	51	6
foul	0	0
total	156	30

Result

Final score

156 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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