Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.19 – 14.3

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277 ±13.9

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 53.85Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 16.4Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 40.94Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.3 ±17.5

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX -20.03Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 25.74Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6047Proctor Frostbyte

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 8.59Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4687, 2502, 2177

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4687, 2502, 2177

Auto

27.5 24%

Teleop

56.3 50%

Endgame

29.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2227, 11292, 6047

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2227, 11292, 6047

Auto

16.6 100%

Teleop

-1.5 0%

Endgame

-3.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.2pts

Blue projected score14.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.9
Score range: -3–128
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 93.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277Season APEX141.3

27.5Auto16.6

56.3Teleop-1.5

29.2Endgame-3.9

0Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	46	30
endgame	29	21
foul	0	5
total	89	82

Result

Final score

89 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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