Qualification · Qualification 58
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
0 – 55
33%67%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
33 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.5 ±17
Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 4.28Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
10474Turcia Machina
Provisional
Season APEX 20.7Event APEX 3.29Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -9.38Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133 ±16.2
Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 18.36Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 26.78Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 9.86Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2500, 10474, 4230
0
/ 100 compatProjected
-1.8 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 2500, 10474, 4230
Auto
8.6 0%
Teleop
-1.7 100%
Endgame
-8.3 100%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7041, 2574, 3212
43
/ 100 compatProjected
55 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 7041, 2574, 3212
Auto
19.2 35%
Teleop
26.0 47%
Endgame
9.7 18%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.62
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score-1.8pts
Blue projected score55pts
Red win probability33%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 20%, blue 24%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -55
- Score range
- -17–72
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
145.5Season APEX133
8.6Auto19.2
-1.7Teleop26
-8.3Endgame9.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 4 | 18 |
| teleop | 15 | 28 |
| endgame | 14 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 33 | 63 |
Result
Final score
33 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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