Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 55

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.5 ±17

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 4.28Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX 3.29Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -9.38Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133 ±16.2

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 18.36Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 26.78Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 9.86Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2500, 10474, 4230

/ 100 compat

Projected

-1.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 10474, 4230

Auto

8.6 0%

Teleop

-1.7 100%

Endgame

-8.3 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7041, 2574, 3212

/ 100 compat

Projected

55 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7041, 2574, 3212

Auto

19.2 35%

Teleop

26.0 47%

Endgame

9.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-1.8pts

Blue projected score55pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55
Score range: -17–72
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 94.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.5Season APEX133

8.6Auto19.2

-1.7Teleop26

-8.3Endgame9.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	18
teleop	15	28
endgame	14	12
foul	0	5
total	33	63

Result

Final score

33 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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