Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.28 – 20.34

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.8 ±12.2

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 32.5Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 9.74Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 96.04Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 124.8 ±18

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX -3.19Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5720Jagobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 0.07Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 23.46Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8122, 3298, 6045

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8122, 3298, 6045

Auto

27.2 21%

Teleop

76.9 58%

Endgame

28.3 21%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5278, 5720, 6758

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5278, 5720, 6758

Auto

10.4 43%

Teleop

3.2 13%

Endgame

10.4 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.3pts

Blue projected score20.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.9
Score range: 3–155
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 94.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.8Season APEX124.8

27.2Auto10.4

76.9Teleop3.2

28.3Endgame10.4

8Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	20
teleop	86	8
endgame	54	0
foul	35	5
total	192	33

Result

Final score

192 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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