Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.24 – 25.62

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.1 ±16.7

3054IceStorm

Provisional

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 8.81Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 49.31Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 170.12Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 103.1 ±20.2

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 2.12Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 17.95Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6132Iron Rangers

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 5.55Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3054, 9532, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3054, 9532, 6907

Auto

49.7 22%

Teleop

125.9 55%

Endgame

53.1 23%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5253, 4623, 6132

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.6 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5253, 4623, 6132

Auto

7.6 26%

Teleop

14.6 51%

Endgame

6.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.2pts

Blue projected score25.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 202.6
Score range: 9–245
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 93.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.1Season APEX103.1

49.7Auto7.6

125.9Teleop14.6

53.1Endgame6.5

64Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	11
teleop	115	17
endgame	36	6
foul	35	0
total	244	34

Result

Final score

244 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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