Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.22 – 225.25

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.4 ±10.4

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 52.15Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 120.1Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 21.97Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 646 ±10.4

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 110.57Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 115.09Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX -0.41Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 5913, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 5913, 1622

Auto

43.8 22%

Teleop

104.2 53%

Endgame

49.2 25%

Strengths

· 5913 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2052, 2491, 2169

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2052, 2491, 2169

Auto

44.6 20%

Teleop

140.3 62%

Endgame

39.9 18%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.2pts

Blue projected score225.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 177–242
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 91.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.4Season APEX646

43.8Auto44.6

104.2Teleop140.3

49.2Endgame39.9

0Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	50
teleop	83	114
endgame	0	58
foul	0	20
total	142	242

Result

Final score

142 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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