Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.61 – 65.71

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.1 ±13.3

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 56.22Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 15.88Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 18.51Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.2 ±14.5

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 19.34Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 22.94Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 23.43Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3102, 2502, 4226

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3102, 2502, 4226

Auto

29.1 33%

Teleop

43.3 49%

Endgame

15.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4181, 5232, 5275

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4181, 5232, 5275

Auto

31.6 53%

Teleop

13.3 22%

Endgame

14.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.6pts

Blue projected score65.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.9
Score range: 49–108
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 92.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.1Season APEX204.2

29.1Auto31.6

43.3Teleop13.3

15.1Endgame14.8

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	19
teleop	46	25
endgame	24	18
foul	0	0
total	96	62

Result

Final score

96 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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