Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 112.69

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 94.4 ±18.5

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 1.77Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX -4.36Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6047Proctor Frostbyte

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 1.72Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.2 ±13.3

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 42.99Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 50.34Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 19.36Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3212, 10474, 6047

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3212, 10474, 6047

Auto

3.3 100%

Teleop

-5.1 0%

Endgame

3.2 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2177, 2855, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2177, 2855, 2239

Auto

21.9 19%

Teleop

67.0 59%

Endgame

25.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.6 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-0.9pts

Blue projected score112.7pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.7
Score range: -17–130
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 92.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

94.4Season APEX234.2

3.3Auto21.9

-5.1Teleop67

3.2Endgame25

75Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	18
teleop	31	43
endgame	5	32
foul	10	0
total	65	93

Result

Final score

65 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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