Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.63 – 14.89

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155.9 ±15.1

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 32.9Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 5.29Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 23.44Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.8 ±16.2

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 4.85Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX -4.72Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 14.76Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3610, 2500, 6758

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3610, 2500, 6758

Auto

10.2 16%

Teleop

37.5 58%

Endgame

16.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2512, 5278, 7041

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2512, 5278, 7041

Auto

17.8 100%

Teleop

-5.5 0%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.6pts

Blue projected score14.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: -2–79
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 93.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155.9Season APEX174.8

10.2Auto17.8

37.5Teleop-5.5

16.6Endgame-0.2

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	18
teleop	25	11
endgame	9	4
foul	0	0
total	59	33

Result

Final score

59 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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