Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

2.43 – 113.82

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±13.3

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 24.94Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX -25.05Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 2.54Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.8 ±13.5

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -6.06Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 22.89Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 96.99Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8122, 2227, 2129

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8122, 2227, 2129

Auto

15.7 100%

Teleop

-19.9 0%

Endgame

6.0 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4230, 10711, 6045

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4230, 10711, 6045

Auto

23.6 22%

Teleop

75.5 71%

Endgame

7.4 7%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score2.4pts

Blue projected score113.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.4
Score range: -15–131
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 93.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.6Season APEX468.8

15.7Auto23.6

-19.9Teleop75.5

6Endgame7.4

70Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	17
teleop	22	63
endgame	16	5
foul	15	0
total	66	85

Result

Final score

66 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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