Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.27 – 58.5

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 119.4 ±18.8

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 33.96Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5720Jagobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 8.88Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 37.43Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.4 ±13.3

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 51.84Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 1.24Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 5.42Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11292, 5720, 2574

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11292, 5720, 2574

Auto

20.9 29%

Teleop

39.8 55%

Endgame

11.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4687, 3008, 3298

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4687, 3008, 3298

Auto

14.9 24%

Teleop

17.8 29%

Endgame

28.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.3pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.8
Score range: 42–97
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 94.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

119.4Season APEX271.4

20.9Auto14.9

39.8Teleop17.8

11.5Endgame28.4

0Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	24
teleop	2	38
endgame	4	25
foul	0	0
total	23	87

Result

Final score

23 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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