Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

42.96 – 31.71

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.3 ±18

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 20.37Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 14.21Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

6132Iron Rangers

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 8.38Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.6 ±15.1

5720Jagobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 3.15Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 7.47Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 21.09Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3212, 5275, 6132

/ 100 compat

Projected

43 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3212, 5275, 6132

Auto

18.1 50%

Teleop

10.3 28%

Endgame

8.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5720, 2169, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5720, 2169, 3008

Auto

15.5 54%

Teleop

-1.2 0%

Endgame

14.6 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43pts

Blue projected score31.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.3
Score range: 13–62
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.3Season APEX246.6

18.1Auto15.5

10.3Teleop-1.2

8Endgame14.6

59Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	12
teleop	19	15
endgame	13	3
foul	10	0
total	53	30

Result

Final score

53 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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