Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.1 – 239.95

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 104.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.8 ±16.5

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 6.25Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 53.37Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6132Iron Rangers

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX -1.52Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 563.3 ±13.9

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 1.79Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 149.45Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 88.71Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4181, 3102, 6132

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4181, 3102, 6132

Auto

29.3 52%

Teleop

25.0 45%

Endgame

1.6 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4623, 6907, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

240 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4623, 6907, 2052

Auto

69.0 29%

Teleop

131.8 55%

Endgame

39.7 17%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.1pts

Blue projected score240pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.8
Score range: 42–256
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 91.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.8Season APEX563.3

29.3Auto69

25Teleop131.8

1.6Endgame39.7

114Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	81
teleop	66	229
endgame	22	78
foul	5	0
total	119	388

Result

Final score

119 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 104.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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