Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.89 – 79.16

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.6 ±18.5

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 62.54Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 13.23Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 9.12Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.6 ±14.1

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 48.1Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94

6047Proctor Frostbyte

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 5.37Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 25.69Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9532, 3212, 5253

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9532, 3212, 5253

Auto

1.7 2%

Teleop

45.3 55%

Endgame

34.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2177, 6047, 1622

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2177, 6047, 1622

Auto

19.0 23%

Teleop

48.6 59%

Endgame

14.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.7
Score range: 62–102
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 91.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.6Season APEX179.6

1.7Auto19

45.3Teleop48.6

34.8Endgame14.9

0Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	21
teleop	12	14
endgame	12	23
foul	0	0
total	35	58

Result

Final score

35 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.