Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.91 – 54.98

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.5 ±14.5

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 4.35Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX -4.21Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 20.77Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.1 ±15.1

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 11.61Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX -5.71Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 49.08Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2500, 5278, 2502

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2500, 5278, 2502

Auto

16.8 96%

Teleop

4.5 26%

Endgame

-3.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2239, 10474, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

55 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2239, 10474, 2472

Auto

16.7 28%

Teleop

18.0 31%

Endgame

24.1 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.9pts

Blue projected score55pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.1
Score range: 4–72
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 92.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.5Season APEX272.1

16.8Auto16.7

4.5Teleop18

-3.8Endgame24.1

54Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	20
teleop	2	70
endgame	3	23
foul	0	0
total	18	113

Result

Final score

18 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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