Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.56 – 116.24

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.3 ±17.5

3054IceStorm

Provisional

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 6.63Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -5.44Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 22.37Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.9 ±14.1

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 86.84Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 20.25Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 9.15Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3054, 4230, 5275

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3054, 4230, 5275

Auto

24.8 100%

Teleop

-10.9 0%

Endgame

-0.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6045, 6758, 5232

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6045, 6758, 5232

Auto

20.7 19%

Teleop

76.5 69%

Endgame

13.1 12%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.6pts

Blue projected score116.2pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.7
Score range: 7–133
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 92.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.3Season APEX334.9

24.8Auto20.7

-10.9Teleop76.5

-0.6Endgame13.1

64Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	39
teleop	10	105
endgame	2	41
foul	0	0
total	25	185

Result

Final score

25 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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