Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.19 – 81.69

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549 ±13.1

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 108.54Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 101.71Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 10.94Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±16.5

4687Spartobots

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 53.43Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 15.57Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5720Jagobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 12.69Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 2491, 7041

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5913, 2491, 7041

Auto

41.1 18%

Teleop

136.8 61%

Endgame

46.8 21%

Strengths

· 5913 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4687, 2129, 5720

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4687, 2129, 5720

Auto

18.0 22%

Teleop

39.1 48%

Endgame

23.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.2pts

Blue projected score81.7pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.5
Score range: 66–237
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 90.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549Season APEX212.7

41.1Auto18

136.8Teleop39.1

46.8Endgame23.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	18
teleop	179	13
endgame	45	26
foul	0	0
total	306	57

Result

Final score

306 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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