Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.39 – 54.26

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 7.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.7 ±13.3

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 13.71Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX -20.24Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 41.92Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.6 ±12.8

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 8.97Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX -1.03Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 46.32Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4226, 2227, 3610

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 2227, 3610

Auto

13.2 33%

Teleop

14.9 37%

Endgame

12.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3298, 2169, 2574

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3298, 2169, 2574

Auto

10.1 20%

Teleop

16.2 33%

Endgame

23.3 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score35.4pts

Blue projected score54.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.9
Score range: 19–70
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 91.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.7Season APEX235.6

13.2Auto10.1

14.9Teleop16.2

12Endgame23.3

61Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	14
teleop	14	29
endgame	20	5
foul	0	0
total	45	48

Result

Final score

45 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 7.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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