Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.2 – 71.1

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

67 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.8 ±16

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 6.66Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 54.82Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 49.72Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±13.9

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 29.9Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 30.38Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2512Duluth East Daredevils

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 10.82Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3008, 2855, 11292

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3008, 2855, 11292

Auto

18.9 18%

Teleop

61.3 58%

Endgame

26.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10711, 8122, 2512

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 8122, 2512

Auto

16.2 23%

Teleop

34.1 48%

Endgame

20.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.2pts

Blue projected score71.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 54–128
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 92.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.8Season APEX276.5

18.9Auto16.2

61.3Teleop34.1

26.4Endgame20.3

77Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	29	3
endgame	17	9
foul	0	5
total	67	37

Result

Final score

67 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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