Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.88 – 97.18

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.9 ±19.1

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX -1.71Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 66.41Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX -1.82Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570 ±11.7

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 65.18Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX -1.34Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 33.34Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4623, 9532, 10474

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4623, 9532, 10474

Auto

7.8 12%

Teleop

26.4 42%

Endgame

29.2 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2052, 2502, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2052, 2502, 2472

Auto

37.5 40%

Teleop

42.6 45%

Endgame

14.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.9pts

Blue projected score97.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.3
Score range: 47–113
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 90.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.9Season APEX570

7.8Auto37.5

26.4Teleop42.6

29.2Endgame14.4

0Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	56
teleop	23	118
endgame	27	59
foul	0	0
total	56	233

Result

Final score

56 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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