Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.88 – 46.69

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.5 ±14.1

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 148.74Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 44.55Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3212YME Stingbots

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 5.59Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.9 ±16.2

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 32.08Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 0.85Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3054IceStorm

Provisional

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 13.76Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6907, 3102, 3212

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6907, 3102, 3212

Auto

58.0 30%

Teleop

106.5 55%

Endgame

28.6 15%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1622, 5278, 3054

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.7 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1622, 5278, 3054

Auto

9.6 20%

Teleop

32.7 67%

Endgame

6.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score198.9pts

Blue projected score46.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.2
Score range: 31–215
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 90.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.5Season APEX148.9

58Auto9.6

106.5Teleop32.7

28.6Endgame6.3

27Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	13
teleop	127	4
endgame	47	3
foul	0	0
total	233	20

Result

Final score

233 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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