Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82 – 48.17

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

73 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.7 ±15.1

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 10.94Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 49.69Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 21.37Rank 38Record 2-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.7 ±15.2

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 20.46Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 13.01Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 14.7Rank 30Record 4-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7041, 2177, 2129

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7041, 2177, 2129

Auto

29.6 36%

Teleop

37.4 46%

Endgame

14.2 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6758, 5275, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6758, 5275, 2239

Auto

21.3 53%

Teleop

1.4 3%

Endgame

17.5 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82pts

Blue projected score48.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.8
Score range: 32–98
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 90.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.7Season APEX179.7

29.6Auto21.3

37.4Teleop1.4

14.2Endgame17.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	23
teleop	35	39
endgame	19	11
foul	0	0
total	73	73

Result

Final score

73 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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