Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.56 – 74.2

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.1 ±14.1

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 32.27Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 108.56Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 28.73Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.6 ±15.1

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 27.13Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 15.38Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 31.69Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2855, 5913, 9532

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2855, 5913, 9532

Auto

33.9 21%

Teleop

87.5 53%

Endgame

43.9 27%

Strengths

· 5913 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7041, 3610, 4181

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7041, 3610, 4181

Auto

29.8 39%

Teleop

32.8 43%

Endgame

13.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.6pts

Blue projected score74.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.4
Score range: 55–189
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.1Season APEX198.6

33.9Auto29.8

87.5Teleop32.8

43.9Endgame13.4

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	35
teleop	159	10
endgame	75	2
foul	0	0
total	257	47

Result

Final score

257 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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