Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.37 – 138.23

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.6 ±18.8

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 51.4Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6132Iron Rangers

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 3.86Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 9.11Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.6 ±15.1

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 98.37Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 22.58Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 17.28Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11292, 6132, 3298

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11292, 6132, 3298

Auto

11.4 20%

Teleop

28.2 50%

Endgame

16.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5913, 5253, 8122

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5913, 5253, 8122

Auto

27.4 19%

Teleop

88.2 61%

Endgame

29.3 20%

Strengths

· 5913 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.4pts

Blue projected score138.2pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.9
Score range: 47–155
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 92.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.6Season APEX334.6

11.4Auto27.4

28.2Teleop88.2

16.9Endgame29.3

80Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	37
teleop	23	110
endgame	18	37
foul	0	0
total	60	184

Result

Final score

60 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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