Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.14 – 198.51

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.8 ±12.7

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX 6.72Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 34.57Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 2.85Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.9 ±11.7

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 85.51Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 82.91Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 30.09Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4226, 10711, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4226, 10711, 3008

Auto

12.1 24%

Teleop

26.0 51%

Endgame

12.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2491, 6045, 3610

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2491, 6045, 3610

Auto

31.7 17%

Teleop

126.0 67%

Endgame

31.7 17%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.48 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.1pts

Blue projected score198.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.4
Score range: 28–215
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 89.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.8Season APEX569.9

12.1Auto31.7

26Teleop126

12.7Endgame31.7

74Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	40
teleop	16	202
endgame	21	55
foul	0	0
total	48	297

Result

Final score

48 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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