Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

17.83 – 181.31

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.4 ±15.6

10474Turcia Machina

Provisional

Season APEX 20.7Event APEX -8.74Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 29.4Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX -2.83Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.1 ±15.4

7041Doomsday Dogs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 13.96Rank 9Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 79

6758Otternauts

Season APEX 47Event APEX 19.14Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 80

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 148.21Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10474, 1622, 2502

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.8 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10474, 1622, 2502

Auto

13.0 70%

Teleop

7.4 40%

Endgame

-1.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7041, 6758, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7041, 6758, 6907

Auto

53.2 30%

Teleop

85.6 48%

Endgame

40.1 22%

Strengths

· 6907 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score17.8pts

Blue projected score181.3pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -163.5
Score range: 2–197
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 89.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.4Season APEX340.1

13Auto53.2

7.4Teleop85.6

-1.8Endgame40.1

15Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	50
teleop	17	103
endgame	8	26
foul	0	0
total	36	179

Result

Final score

36 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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