Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.6 – 55.59

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.2 ±12.4

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 7.27Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 36.08Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5278Los Clasicos

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 1.25Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.3 ±16.5

2177The Robettes

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 47.89Rank 8Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 94

4181Quack Attack

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 3.61Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5720Jagobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 4.09Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2169, 2472, 5278

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2169, 2472, 5278

Auto

21.7 48%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

23.2 52%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2177, 4181, 5720

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2177, 4181, 5720

Auto

23.3 41%

Teleop

27.3 48%

Endgame

6.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.6pts

Blue projected score55.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11
Score range: 29–72
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 90.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.2Season APEX182.3

21.7Auto23.3

0Teleop27.3

23.2Endgame6.7

157Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	39
teleop	21	31
endgame	20	17
foul	0	0
total	51	87

Result

Final score

51 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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