Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.72 – 98.36

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107 ±16.5

5232Talons

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 4.38Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6132Iron Rangers

Provisional

Season APEX 14.7Event APEX 14.37Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2574RoboHuskie

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 62.97Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.9 ±17

5253Bigfork Backwoods Bots 5253

Provisional

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 25.38Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 56.55Rank 23Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX 16.43Rank 12Record 7-3-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5232, 6132, 2574

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5232, 6132, 2574

Auto

13.7 18%

Teleop

45.1 60%

Endgame

16.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5253, 2855, 5275

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5253, 2855, 5275

Auto

22.1 25%

Teleop

35.7 40%

Endgame

30.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.7pts

Blue projected score98.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.6
Score range: 66–114
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 90.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107Season APEX220.9

13.7Auto22.1

45.1Teleop35.7

16.1Endgame30.9

127Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	20
teleop	20	57
endgame	9	15
foul	0	5
total	48	97

Result

Final score

48 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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