Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.2 – 68.02

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.4 ±15.3

3610Islanders

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 28.56Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4623Flyer Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 5Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX -18.36Rank 31Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.9 ±12.9

4230TopperBots

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX -11.21Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 2.5Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 76.73Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3610, 4623, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3610, 4623, 3008

Auto

12.5 55%

Teleop

10.0 44%

Endgame

0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4230, 8122, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4230, 8122, 2491

Auto

17.5 26%

Teleop

30.7 46%

Endgame

18.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.2pts

Blue projected score68pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.8
Score range: -1–84
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 90.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.4Season APEX398.9

12.5Auto17.5

10Teleop30.7

0.1Endgame18.9

74Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	39
teleop	13	76
endgame	26	24
foul	0	0
total	57	139

Result

Final score

57 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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