Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.18 – 148.6

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 98.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.2 ±15.6

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 71.87Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2500Herobotics

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 1.06Rank 32Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11292Icebots

Provisional

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 31.25Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.3 ±13.6

9532Messy Bees

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 63.72Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4226Huskies

Season APEX 89.4Event APEX -0.97Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 85.85Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 2500, 11292

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5913, 2500, 11292

Auto

27.3 26%

Teleop

50.7 49%

Endgame

25.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9532, 4226, 6045

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9532, 4226, 6045

Auto

15.6 11%

Teleop

89.2 65%

Endgame

31.4 23%

Strengths

· 6045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.2pts

Blue projected score148.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.4
Score range: 89–164
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 85.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.2Season APEX404.3

27.3Auto15.6

50.7Teleop89.2

25.2Endgame31.4

71Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	39
teleop	166	119
endgame	29	40
foul	0	5
total	246	203

Result

Final score

246 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 98.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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